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Research indicates that CO2 emissions from international aviation are significant and have been growing rapidly. Key points from studies and estimates include:
- International aviation CO2 emissions were about 416 million tonnes (Mt) in 2005. These emissions are projected to more than double by 2025. They may reach between 876 and 1013 Mt if demand is not restricted.
- Aviation emissions grew despite efficiency improvements because demand growth tends to outpace emission intensity gains. Stabilizing emissions at risk-averse climate targets likely requires restricting aviation demand or major technological shifts.
- Aviation accounts for roughly 2.5% to 3% of global CO2 emissions. Emissions from this sector dropped during COVID-19 but have rebounded and are expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2025.
- The aviation industry aims for net zero carbon by 2050. However, current trajectories suggest emissions could double or triple from 2019 levels without stronger measures.
- Non-CO2 emissions from flights, like NOx and water vapor, also contribute significantly. They may account for 50-80% of aviation’s total climate warming effect. This impact is not fully captured by CO2 figures alone.
- Efforts to reduce aviation emissions include improving fuel efficiency, using sustainable aviation fuels, operational improvements, and carbon offsetting programs. However, long aircraft lifetimes and increasing demand limit short-term emission reductions.
Overall, research underscores a crucial point. Without demand restrictions or transformative technological advances, aviation CO2 emissions will continue to grow significantly. This trend poses challenges to global climate goals.
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